Jianyu Liang (·ÄÂç) ¡ÖIntrinsic Predictability of the Venus atmosphere¡×

Understanding predictability of the planetary atmospheres is essential because it is the foundation for improving weather forecast. For the Venus atmosphere, due to the super-rotation, we expected that the predictability is shorter than the Earth¡Çs atmosphere, but it is never quantified because of sparse observations and incomplete numerical modeling. Here we first quantify the intrinsic predictability and forecast error growth in the Venus atmosphere and found that the predictability is around 210 Earth days which is much longer than those of the Earth¡Çs atmosphere (around 2-3 weeks). The reason could be due to large-scale slower growing mode in the Venus atmosphere. We also investigated the latitude and altitude dependency of the error growth. Before reaching saturation, on average, the error growth rates are slower in lower latitude regions above the cloud base. We also find that thermal tides modulate error growth. Error growth above ~65 km is weaker on the evening side (east of the sub-solar point) than on the morning side. Our study provides crucial insight into the predictability of the Venusian atmosphere, offering valuable information for planning future observations and mission design.

WTK seminar 129 (2025-10-10)